Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 1.980496 2.299999 2.653558 3.073695 3.559268 4.102797 4.757397
2026-02-08 1.397174 1.802301 2.298236 2.949509 3.782023 4.810537 6.178159
2026-02-15 1.076382 1.513248 2.094036 2.921560 4.069752 5.606454 7.820426
2026-02-22 0.904456 1.366916 2.025805 3.031025 4.524711 6.661765 9.953332
2026-03-01 0.747075 1.202607 1.891974 3.008148 4.768395 7.436740 11.791204
2026-03-08 0.623333 1.061674 1.761743 2.957031 4.944648 8.116595 13.565598
2026-03-15 0.537408 0.963497 1.678092 2.958339 5.191864 8.925737 15.644448
2026-03-22 0.505899 0.950383 1.729738 3.188451 5.846608 10.481459 19.179025
2026-03-29 0.454379 0.892038 1.692253 3.252971 6.215822 11.590178 22.080539
2026-04-05 0.409572 0.838155 1.653302 3.305944 6.566305 12.703738 25.134248
2026-04-12 0.364239 0.775472 1.587553 3.295806 6.791325 13.607171 27.903883
2026-04-19 0.323304 0.714857 1.516316 3.262604 6.962659 14.423253 30.602912
2026-04-26 0.271436 0.624443 1.374654 3.070580 6.797183 14.578861 32.052133
2026-05-03 0.234508 0.560826 1.280246 2.966119 6.804606 15.097919 34.361655
2026-05-10 0.209135 0.519163 1.227210 2.944751 6.990923 16.023320 37.695641
2026-05-17 0.196112 0.504410 1.232493 3.057488 7.497980 17.722128 43.018853
2026-05-24 0.176159 0.469158 1.184243 3.035242 7.683902 18.716553 46.846293
2026-05-31 0.157128 0.432916 1.127883 2.983953 7.790954 19.539740 50.381172
2026-06-07 0.143143 0.407498 1.094500 2.985370 8.029509 20.710996 54.945449
2026-06-14 0.141323 0.414837 1.146441 3.217590 8.897520 23.559040 64.186016
2026-06-21 0.132083 0.399783 1.136775 3.282704 9.332334 25.364203 70.959847
2026-06-28 0.123226 0.384313 1.123610 3.336159 9.743630 27.164277 77.981178
2026-07-05 0.112904 0.362686 1.089884 3.325931 9.975319 28.515223 83.962320